A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
