🔗 Share this article

Just 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough question to address. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.

As per the data, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have put together ten consecutive victories, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.