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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still